2010年11月26日 星期五

華爾街日報教你的五都大選 新手、不投票者、中間選民的懶人投票法

Strong wins for the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, would signal political stability and, while the elections are fought mainly on local issues, would suggest backing for its pro-China policies. That would cheer investors who have poured money into Taiwan on hopes that stronger ties would benefit the island over the longer term. Strong support for the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, on the other hand, would likely prompt the Kuomintang to do more to spur growth to help those hurt by the competition and dislocation resulting from a new free-trade agreement with China.
The outcome, either way, won't derail Taiwan's moves to strengthen economic ties with the fast-growing giant next door, but it will give the Kuomintang and the DPP a chance to fine-tune policies ahead of a presidential election in 2012.
source: 華爾街日報

且說今日有一位長得頗漂亮、選區在台北市的女同事提到明天的五都大選,她說,

「我奶奶說一定要去投啊,她喜歡的候選人若沒選上,她會很難過ㄟ。」

「那你覺得誰會上啊?」我問。

「我奶奶要投郝龍斌,但我其實比較喜歡蔡英文ㄟ。」

「但蔡英文不是你們選區的啊...」

「啊?真的嗎?那郝龍斌是跟誰選啊?那一定是郝龍斌贏的啊。」

這就是今年選舉的大概冷度。

且說國內媒體對於五都大選,泰半著眼於2012年總統大選的佈局,但這對你我小市民的口袋其實沒太大幫助。今日在華爾街日報看到一篇文章,我覺得頗有投票參考價值:

1. 贊成馬英九的中國政策者,可以選國民黨(KMT),如此國民黨若五都選舉大勝,代表政治相對穩定,未來對中國傾斜會越來越大。

2. 若你投民進黨(DPP),讓民進黨贏下這一役,則國民黨選後只好「調整」政策,多少關照國內成長,以便協助受害於傾中政策下的市井小民(與中國簽訂ECFA的部分後遺症)。

因此,若你100%很放心馬英九,請選國民黨。

其餘的,應該選民進黨,好讓國民黨的政策可以做「微調」;尤其若你屬於經濟弱勢(覺得自己薪資太少、看不到將來,或者目前待業中者),由是如此,好讓國家政策是有利於你的未來。

這非關藍綠,而是攸關你我口袋深淺。

請記住,即使民進黨大勝,WSJ的看法是國民黨敗選後的政策也只是「微調」,因此不必擔心股市大幅反轉。

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